Trump Drug Pricing Deals Could Save $529 Billion in a Decade, White House Report Says
White House economists say President Trump’s agreements with drug companies to lower U.S. prescription prices to match what other countries pay could save $529 billion over the next 10 years.
The analysis, obtained by the Associated Press, provides the first economy-wide estimates behind a policy that Trump is using to appeal to voters ahead of November’s midterm elections, where control of the House and Senate is at stake. Democratic lawmakers have expressed doubt about the savings Trump has claimed, and these new numbers are expected to raise further questions about the data.
Cost-of-living concerns are top of mind for voters, and rising energy prices linked to the war in Iran have added to public anxiety. Trump has tried to address affordability by highlighting his efforts to negotiate deals so that U.S. prescription drug costs are no longer far higher than those in other wealthy nations.
“Now you have the lowest drug prices anywhere in the world,” Trump told a crowd of seniors at a rally in Florida on Friday. “And that alone should win us the midterms.”
The analysis was completed by administration officials for the White House Council of Economic Advisers. They also estimated that federal and state governments could save a combined $64.3 billion on Medicaid over the next decade because of what Trump calls his “most favored nation” policy on drug prices.
Few details about the deals struck between the Trump administration and 17 major pharmaceutical companies have been made public, making it difficult to independently confirm the projected savings. The White House analysis aimed to estimate future savings as more drugs enter the market and fall under Trump’s framework. One model in the report put possible savings as high as $733 billion over a decade.
Trump and his Department of Health and Human Services have described the drug-pricing deals as groundbreaking and have urged Congress to turn their principles into law. Democratic lawmakers have questioned the administration’s savings claims. Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, along with 17 other Senate Democrats, proposed a measure in April that would require the administration to reveal the terms of the agreements signed with drug companies.
“If these deals are so great, why is the Trump administration afraid of showing them to the public?” Wyden said when announcing the measure. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said his team would share details that do not include proprietary information or trade secrets.
The White House said it has not released the full agreements because they contain highly sensitive data that could affect financial markets.
The potential savings estimated by the Trump administration would be significant. Americans spent $467 billion on prescription drugs in 2024, according to the latest government figures. The analysis assumes that other countries would also pay more for their medications, which would give drug companies a more diverse source of revenue and allow them to keep investing in new treatments.
Outside economists have noted that any savings might not go directly to patients, many of whom already pay reduced prices for their drugs through insurance.
The Congressional Budget Office estimated in October 2024 that a plan similar to the one Trump eventually adopted could lower prescription drug prices by more than 5%. However, the CBO added that the decrease “would probably diminish over time as manufacturers adjusted to the new policy by altering prices or distribution of drugs in other countries.”
The size of the savings claimed by the Trump administration is likely to draw more scrutiny from Democrats, who argue that any price reductions would be canceled out by higher costs for drugs not covered by the “most favored nation” framework. One of their main criticisms is that drug companies have increased their profits while working with the administration.
In April, staff for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont released an analysis of 15 companies that agreed to the drug-pricing plan. It found that their combined profits jumped 66% over the past year to $177 billion. The report also noted that the tax cuts Trump signed into law last year “exempted or delayed many of the most expensive drugs” from price negotiations with Medicare.
The Trump administration has pushed back, saying Sanders’ critique is flawed because it relies on list prices for drugs rather than what patients actually pay.
Source: MedPage Today
